Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 59.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 57.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 53.7%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Eller
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Eller
Carpenter
Last 10: Eller 3-7 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
5
Eller
Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
4
3
Eller
Carpenter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
49.6% (2,027)
+1.5%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
41.5% (41)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
43.9% (467)
+2.8%
On power play, Eller has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Eller shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Eller
Carpenter
Home
51.4% (6,118)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Eller
Carpenter
P1
51.2%
49.6%
P2
50.1%
47.7%
P3
50.2%
48.0%
OT
56.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 10:18 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Lars Eller |