Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (39.2% vs 38.6%). Crouse wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crouse 41.0% vs Zegras 39.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crouse 54.0%
Defensive zone
Crouse 69.0%
Neutral zone
Crouse 62.4%
Result
Lawson Crouse favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Crouse
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Crouse
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crouse
1
0
Crouse
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crouse
1
0
Crouse
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crouse
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (394)
38.6% (1,669)
+0.5%
Power Play
40.4% (47)
38.5% (148)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
39.3% (56)
28.6% (7)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Crouse has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Crouse is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (301).
Crouse shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Crouse
Zegras
Home
40.8% (262)
39.9% (882)
Away
37.4% (235)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Crouse
Zegras
P1
44.5%
40.2%
P2
33.7%
38.0%
P3
37.4%
37.7%
Final 5 min
36.7%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crouse
32.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:03 | Neutral | Lawson Crouse |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Lawson Crouse |