Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Carlsson 45.2% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 72.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 68.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 69.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Cozens
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Carlsson
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Cozens
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
3
Cozens
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
45.9% (647)
+6.7%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
46.3% (82)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (84)
+0.0%
On power play, Cozens has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. Carlsson is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (281).
Home / Away
Cozens
Carlsson
Home
54.1% (375)
43.0% (414)
Away
52.3% (331)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Cozens
Carlsson
P1
55.8%
45.9%
P2
50.6%
39.7%
P3
53.7%
49.0%
OT
40.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.7%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Carlsson
40.0%▬
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |