Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Scheifele 49.5% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Carlsson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
48.7% (981)
-6.9%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
53.2% (250)
-15.9%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
43.2% (37)
-4.5%
On power play, Scheifele has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Scheifele is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (925).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Scheifele
Home
44.5% (362)
50.0% (672)
Away
38.3% (368)
48.8% (596)
By Period
Carlsson
Scheifele
P1
46.3%
51.4%
P2
35.1%
45.1%
P3
43.9%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | OT | 01:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |