Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Scheifele 46.8% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 66.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 71.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Carlsson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Carlsson
Scheifele
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
4
Carlsson
Scheifele
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
46.3% (12,036)
-5.3%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
50.2% (2,563)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
41.6% (598)
-6.6%
On power play, Scheifele has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Scheifele
Home
42.2% (1,044)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Carlsson
Scheifele
P1
43.3%
48.2%
P2
36.5%
45.6%
P3
43.2%
46.8%
OT
40.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | OT | 01:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |