Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Scheifele 47.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 60.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 59.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Carlsson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carlsson
Scheifele
Last 8: Carlsson 3-5 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
46.5% (878)
-1.0%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
48.3% (174)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
50.0% (54)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Scheifele
Home
42.5% (428)
46.2% (571)
Away
46.4% (399)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Carlsson
Scheifele
P1
45.4%
51.9%
P2
39.7%
45.6%
P3
48.5%
43.9%
OT
41.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
39.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |