Scouting Report
Matthew Poitras holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poitras on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — Poitras shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Poitras 45.5% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 70.6%
Defensive zone
Poitras 58.6%
Neutral zone
Poitras 64.9%
Result
Matthew Poitras favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Carlsson
Poitras
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carlsson
Poitras
Last 5: Carlsson 3-2 Poitras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Poitras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poitras
1
2
Carlsson
Poitras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Poitras
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
43.3% (245)
-8.9%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
50.0% (6)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
66.7% (3)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poitras shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. Poitras is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Poitras
Home
38.6% (254)
44.6% (121)
Away
31.6% (307)
42.9% (133)
By Period
Carlsson
Poitras
P1
35.9%
41.5%
P2
33.8%
45.4%
P3
34.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
36.8%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:40 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |