Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 63.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Carlsson 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
1
Carlsson
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Carlsson
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
5
Carlsson
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
45.5% (1,190)
-11.1%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
56.4% (94)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
40.0% (30)
+0.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Home
38.6% (254)
47.8% (670)
Away
31.6% (307)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Carlsson
MacKinnon
P1
35.9%
45.3%
P2
33.8%
48.5%
P3
34.3%
45.0%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 18:07 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |