Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 60.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 64.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
49.2% (1,266)
-7.4%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
54.9% (193)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
49.1% (55)
-10.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Home
44.5% (362)
50.9% (740)
Away
38.3% (368)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Carlsson
MacKinnon
P1
46.3%
50.9%
P2
35.1%
51.8%
P3
43.9%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |