Leo Carlsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 85.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 78.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 76.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Carlsson
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
11
Carlsson
MacKinnon
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
46.1% (11,218)
-5.1%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
53.3% (1,412)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
42.8% (502)
-7.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Home
42.2% (1,044)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Carlsson
MacKinnon
P1
43.3%
47.4%
P2
36.5%
46.6%
P3
43.2%
46.1%
OT
40.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 18:07 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |