Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 54.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 66.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Carlsson
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
50.0% (992)
-4.5%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
64.9% (148)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Home
42.5% (428)
53.3% (591)
Away
46.4% (399)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Carlsson
MacKinnon
P1
45.4%
49.9%
P2
39.7%
53.2%
P3
48.5%
50.8%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |