Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Kadri 47.6% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 60.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 63.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Carlsson
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carlsson
Kadri
Last 5: Carlsson 2-3 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
1
Carlsson
Kadri
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kadri
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
47.4% (821)
-1.9%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
48.8% (86)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
38.5% (13)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Kadri
Home
42.5% (428)
46.6% (487)
Away
46.4% (399)
48.3% (433)
By Period
Carlsson
Kadri
P1
45.4%
52.7%
P2
39.7%
50.2%
P3
48.5%
40.2%
OT
41.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |