Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Donato 45.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 80.4%
Defensive zone
Donato 58.6%
Neutral zone
Donato 64.9%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Carlsson
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Carlsson
Donato
Last 6: Carlsson 5-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
1
Carlsson
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
43.5% (400)
-1.7%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
48.7% (119)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
33.3% (6)
+5.4%
On power play, Donato has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Donato
Home
44.5% (362)
50.2% (279)
Away
38.3% (368)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Carlsson
Donato
P1
46.3%
44.6%
P2
35.1%
46.6%
P3
43.9%
42.0%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:41 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |