Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Donato 44.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 76.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 51.0%
Neutral zone
Donato 58.7%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Carlsson
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Carlsson
Donato
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Carlsson
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
1
Carlsson
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
44.2% (1,179)
-3.2%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
46.3% (246)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
36.4% (11)
-1.4%
On power play, Donato has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Donato
Home
42.2% (1,044)
47.2% (743)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Carlsson
Donato
P1
43.3%
43.4%
P2
36.5%
45.1%
P3
43.2%
44.4%
OT
40.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:41 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 10:38 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |