Leo Carlsson vs Ryan Donato

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Ryan Donato holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Carlsson 41.2% vs Donato 44.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor Carlsson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone Donato 76.1%
Defensive zone Carlsson 51.0%
Neutral zone Donato 58.7%
Result Ryan Donato favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Carlsson Donato
Head-to-Head Record
6 - 4 (10 meetings)
6
4
Carlsson Donato
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Donato

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Carlsson Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
1
Carlsson Donato
5 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Carlsson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
44.2% (1,179)
-3.2%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
46.3% (246)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
36.4% (11)
-1.4%
On power play, Donato has a +3.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Donato shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Donato
Home
42.2% (1,044)
47.2% (743)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Carlsson
Donato
P1
43.3%
43.4%
P2
36.5%
45.1%
P3
43.2%
44.4%
OT
40.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
47.5%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%
39.5%
40.8%
Donato
46.0%
48.5%
44.5%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 7, 2025 3 14:52 Offensive Ryan Donato
Nov 30, 2025 2 13:33 Offensive Leo Carlsson
Mar 1, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Leo Carlsson
Mar 1, 2025 2 14:41 Neutral Leo Carlsson
Mar 1, 2025 2 00:19 Neutral Leo Carlsson
Mar 1, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Ryan Donato
Mar 1, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Leo Carlsson
Nov 19, 2024 1 17:41 Defensive Leo Carlsson
Mar 21, 2024 1 10:23 Offensive Ryan Donato
Dec 7, 2023 1 10:38 Defensive Ryan Donato