Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Donato 48.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 57.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Carlsson
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
48.1% (258)
-2.6%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
43.2% (37)
+3.1%
On power play, Carlsson has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Donato
Home
42.5% (428)
45.8% (142)
Away
46.4% (399)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Carlsson
Donato
P1
45.4%
48.1%
P2
39.7%
46.6%
P3
48.5%
46.8%
OT
41.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |