Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Carrick 53.8% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 88.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 75.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Carlsson
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carlsson
Carrick
Last 6: Carlsson 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Carlsson
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Carlsson
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Carlsson
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
55.1% (439)
-9.6%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
66.7% (3)
-20.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
49.1% (53)
-15.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Carrick
Home
42.5% (428)
58.2% (225)
Away
46.4% (399)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Carlsson
Carrick
P1
45.4%
56.7%
P2
39.7%
52.8%
P3
48.5%
54.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |