Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Carrick 52.1% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 93.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 75.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 88.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Carlsson
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Carlsson
Carrick
Last 10: Carlsson 1-9 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Carlsson
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
5
Carlsson
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Carlsson
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
52.1% (2,513)
-11.1%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
61.3% (75)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
50.7% (430)
-15.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Carrick
Home
42.2% (1,044)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Carlsson
Carrick
P1
43.3%
51.8%
P2
36.5%
52.2%
P3
43.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |