Scouting Report
Shane Wright holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Wright 45.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 66.1%
Defensive zone
Wright 64.9%
Neutral zone
Wright 55.5%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Carlsson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Carlsson
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Wright
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
43.9% (758)
-2.1%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
50.7% (67)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
40.0% (5)
-1.3%
On power play, Wright has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Wright
Home
44.5% (362)
46.3% (406)
Away
38.3% (368)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Carlsson
Wright
P1
46.3%
46.8%
P2
35.1%
42.6%
P3
43.9%
44.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |