Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Wright 41.4% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 72.5%
Defensive zone
Wright 60.0%
Neutral zone
Wright 60.2%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Carlsson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carlsson
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Carlsson
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
39.5% (453)
+6.0%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
42.4% (59)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
0.0% (1)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Wright
Home
42.5% (428)
39.5% (286)
Away
46.4% (399)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Carlsson
Wright
P1
45.4%
39.9%
P2
39.7%
37.1%
P3
48.5%
42.9%
OT
41.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Shane Wright |