Scouting Report
Shane Wright holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Wright 43.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Wright 68.5%
Defensive zone
Wright 57.6%
Neutral zone
Wright 55.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Carlsson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Carlsson
Wright
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
1
Carlsson
Wright
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
42.6% (1,318)
-1.6%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
45.8% (131)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
33.3% (6)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Wright
Home
42.2% (1,044)
44.2% (746)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Carlsson
Wright
P1
43.3%
44.4%
P2
36.5%
40.7%
P3
43.2%
44.0%
OT
40.7%
20.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 08:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |