Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Gourde 48.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 85.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 81.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Carlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Carlsson
Gourde
Last 7: Carlsson 1-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Carlsson
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Carlsson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
48.0% (914)
-13.6%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
54.2% (48)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
43.9% (123)
-3.9%
On even strength, Gourde has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Carlsson shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Gourde
Home
38.6% (254)
50.2% (512)
Away
31.6% (307)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Carlsson
Gourde
P1
35.9%
50.0%
P2
33.8%
45.3%
P3
34.3%
48.6%
OT
44.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:25 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |