Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 72.9%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Carlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Carlsson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Carlsson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
47.2% (654)
-1.7%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
45.0% (20)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
32.2% (87)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Gourde
Home
42.5% (428)
44.1% (322)
Away
46.4% (399)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Carlsson
Gourde
P1
45.4%
42.4%
P2
39.7%
49.8%
P3
48.5%
44.3%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |