Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Gourde 48.2% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 81.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 83.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 81.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Carlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Carlsson
Gourde
Last 8: Carlsson 1-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Carlsson
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Carlsson
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
48.4% (4,954)
-7.4%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
57.4% (376)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
39.9% (554)
-4.9%
On power play, Gourde has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Gourde
Home
42.2% (1,044)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Carlsson
Gourde
P1
43.3%
49.9%
P2
36.5%
47.4%
P3
43.2%
47.5%
OT
40.7%
37.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:25 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |