Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.0% vs Duchene 52.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 82.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.4%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 69.2%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Draisaitl
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Draisaitl
Duchene
Last 6: Draisaitl 4-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Draisaitl
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
2
0
Draisaitl
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (923)
53.0% (723)
+0.7%
Power Play
56.1% (244)
49.5% (101)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
58.6% (29)
43.8% (16)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Draisaitl shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Duchene
Home
55.2% (636)
54.9% (408)
Away
53.4% (560)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Draisaitl
Duchene
P1
50.8%
52.5%
P2
56.6%
51.7%
P3
54.0%
53.6%
OT
67.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:22 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |