Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 54.2%). Look for Draisaitl on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 53.3% vs Duchene 54.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 20-17 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 55.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.7%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 50.7%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Draisaitl
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
17
(37 meetings)
20
17
Draisaitl
Duchene
Last 10: Draisaitl 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
7
6
Draisaitl
Duchene
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
9
Draisaitl
Duchene
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
5
2
Draisaitl
Duchene
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (10,240)
53.9% (10,396)
-1.0%
Power Play
55.7% (2,827)
56.9% (1,665)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (977)
49.1% (468)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Draisaitl shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Duchene
Home
54.6% (7,049)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
52.0% (6,995)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Draisaitl
Duchene
P1
52.7%
54.5%
P2
53.6%
54.5%
P3
53.4%
53.4%
OT
57.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:22 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 05:11 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 07:32 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |