Scouting Report
Logan Couture holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couture shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Couture 50.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couture 64.8%
Defensive zone
Couture 67.5%
Neutral zone
Couture 75.1%
Result
Logan Couture favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Nelson
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Couture
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Couture
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
1
2
Nelson
Couture
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Couture
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
51.0% (839)
-8.9%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
54.2% (48)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
39.7% (63)
-1.2%
On even strength, Couture has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Couture is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couture
Home
43.8% (224)
51.3% (462)
Away
41.0% (227)
49.6% (488)
By Period
Nelson
Couture
P1
48.1%
54.4%
P2
38.4%
49.4%
P3
39.2%
46.9%
OT
75.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
41.4%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 03:19 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |