Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Couture on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couture 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Couture leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.1%
21.9%
78.1%
Couture
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Couture
O'Reilly
Last 10: Couture 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Couture
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
6
0
Couture
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Couture
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couture
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (986)
56.6% (1,064)
-7.9%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
60.4% (260)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (195)
54.0% (261)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Couture is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Couture shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Couture
O'Reilly
Home
47.2% (625)
54.9% (801)
Away
50.2% (650)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Couture
O'Reilly
P1
46.8%
58.0%
P2
49.8%
56.7%
P3
49.8%
55.4%
OT
46.2%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
48.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Logan Couture |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 03:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:19 | Offensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 08:59 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |