Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couture 47.6% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couture 69.1%
Defensive zone
Couture 66.9%
Neutral zone
Couture 65.4%
Result
Logan Couture favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Couture
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Couture
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Couture
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
1
0
Couture
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couture
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,083)
56.1% (690)
-6.9%
Power Play
56.7% (60)
64.6% (96)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (206)
45.9% (109)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Couture is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Couture shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Couture
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (713)
58.3% (408)
Away
45.0% (636)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Couture
O'Reilly
P1
47.2%
57.7%
P2
45.0%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
47.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |