Scouting Report
Luke Glendening holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Glendening shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Glendening 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.5%
Defensive zone
Glendening 82.1%
Neutral zone
Glendening 55.3%
Result
Luke Glendening favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Nelson
Glendening
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Glendening
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Glendening
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Glendening
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Glendening
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Glendening
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
58.5% (509)
-7.8%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
51.9% (27)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
49.4% (164)
-1.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Glendening shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Glendening is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Nelson
Glendening
Home
53.6% (603)
53.8% (342)
Away
49.9% (585)
58.4% (358)
By Period
Nelson
Glendening
P1
55.4%
55.7%
P2
47.2%
52.8%
P3
52.6%
59.5%
OT
51.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Glendening
56.0%▲
50.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2020 | 3 | 11:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Luke Glendening |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |