Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Foligno 48.9% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 93.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 92.7%
92.7%
7.3%
Pavelski
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Pavelski
Foligno
Last 8: Pavelski 7-1 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
46.9% (258)
+8.8%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
59.4% (32)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
54.5% (11)
-2.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Foligno is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Foligno
Home
59.2% (622)
43.4% (143)
Away
52.6% (584)
53.2% (158)
By Period
Pavelski
Foligno
P1
54.1%
46.7%
P2
56.4%
53.1%
P3
56.4%
45.2%
OT
65.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |