Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Jankowski 47.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Nelson
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Nelson
Jankowski
Last 9: Nelson 7-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Jankowski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Jankowski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
49.0% (251)
-0.5%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
28.6% (7)
+23.3%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
40.0% (65)
+17.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Nelson is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Nelson shoots left. Jankowski is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jankowski
Home
55.0% (362)
50.0% (172)
Away
43.5% (345)
43.0% (151)
By Period
Nelson
Jankowski
P1
49.3%
42.5%
P2
53.6%
49.1%
P3
46.0%
48.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2021 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |