Mark Jankowski vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.0%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 52.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.8%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Jankowski
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (527)
50.0% (992)
+4.1%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
64.9% (148)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
34.4% (32)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jankowski is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Jankowski shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Home
53.9% (310)
53.3% (591)
Away
54.6% (271)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Jankowski
MacKinnon
P1
54.6%
49.9%
P2
56.3%
53.2%
P3
51.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |