Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.2%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 67.2%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 52.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Jankowski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jankowski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Jankowski
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (527)
56.1% (342)
-2.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
53.3% (92)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
62.5% (8)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Jankowski is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Jankowski shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (310)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.6% (271)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Jankowski
Stamkos
P1
54.6%
55.6%
P2
56.3%
52.8%
P3
51.9%
59.1%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:43 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |