Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.9%). Jankowski wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.5% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 83.0%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 72.5%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 50.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Jankowski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Jankowski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Jankowski
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jankowski
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (347)
49.3% (670)
+2.0%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
53.7% (121)
+19.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (75)
33.3% (3)
+10.7%
On power play, Jankowski has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Jankowski is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Jankowski shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Stamkos
Home
46.8% (188)
54.0% (400)
Away
53.5% (245)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Jankowski
Stamkos
P1
51.6%
48.6%
P2
49.3%
54.5%
P3
50.9%
45.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |