Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.5% vs Hertl 55.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.1%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 64.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Jankowski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (347)
54.1% (717)
-2.8%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
61.9% (210)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (75)
58.1% (31)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jankowski is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (270).
Jankowski shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Hertl
Home
46.8% (188)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.5% (245)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Jankowski
Hertl
P1
51.6%
57.1%
P2
49.3%
54.0%
P3
50.9%
56.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |