Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Jankowski leads 19-9 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 78.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 85.0%
15.0%
85.0%
Jankowski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
9
(28 meetings)
19
9
Jankowski
Hertl
Last 10: Jankowski 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Jankowski
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
5
2
Jankowski
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
9
2
Jankowski
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (3,462)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.3%
Power Play
53.7% (95)
59.3% (1,975)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (528)
46.3% (806)
-3.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jankowski is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,535).
Jankowski shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Hertl
Home
51.9% (1,940)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.1% (2,145)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Jankowski
Hertl
P1
50.0%
53.6%
P2
51.2%
54.1%
P3
50.2%
55.3%
OT
20.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:16 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 14:39 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 07:04 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 10:28 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |