Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Kastelic 53.5% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 76.5%
Defensive zone
Cozens 77.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 78.5%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Cozens
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Cozens
Kastelic
Last 5: Cozens 0-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Cozens
Kastelic
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Cozens
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Cozens
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
53.4% (337)
-6.7%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
100.0% (4)
-56.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
75.0% (8)
-32.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +56.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Kastelic is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kastelic
Home
46.2% (567)
56.2% (162)
Away
44.9% (579)
52.9% (187)
By Period
Cozens
Kastelic
P1
46.5%
58.2%
P2
46.5%
58.8%
P3
44.2%
45.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |