Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Larkin
Kastelic
Last 7: Larkin 2-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
4
Larkin
Kastelic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Larkin
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
61.2% (340)
-9.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
83.3% (6)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
56.0% (141)
-7.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
52.4% (647)
60.9% (233)
Away
52.7% (643)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
52.2%
58.6%
P2
53.1%
58.7%
P3
51.7%
63.1%
OT
61.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |