Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Roy 47.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 50.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 59.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Kastelic
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Kastelic
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Kastelic
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
47.5% (617)
+5.9%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
39.6% (53)
+60.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
46.4% (97)
+28.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +60.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kastelic is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Kastelic shoots right. Roy is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Roy
Home
56.2% (162)
47.2% (398)
Away
52.9% (187)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Kastelic
Roy
P1
58.2%
48.6%
P2
58.8%
48.8%
P3
45.4%
43.9%
Final 5 min
59.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |