Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 68.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Roy 51.9% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 51.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 68.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Kastelic
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Kastelic
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
51.9% (547)
+9.3%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
54.1% (37)
+29.2%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
53.3% (92)
+2.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kastelic is 68.3% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Kastelic shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Roy
Home
60.9% (233)
54.0% (328)
Away
59.1% (254)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Kastelic
Roy
P1
58.6%
53.5%
P2
58.7%
51.6%
P3
63.1%
51.6%
Final 5 min
67.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |