Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Faksa 53.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 69.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 77.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 72.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Kastelic
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Kastelic
Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Faksa
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Faksa
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
56.4% (289)
+4.8%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
0.0% (2)
+83.3%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
49.2% (126)
+6.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. Faksa is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Faksa
Home
60.9% (233)
54.9% (182)
Away
59.1% (254)
53.2% (235)
By Period
Kastelic
Faksa
P1
58.6%
61.1%
P2
58.7%
51.3%
P3
63.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
67.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |