Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (+1.1%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 73.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 52.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
56.1% (690)
+1.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
64.6% (96)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
45.9% (109)
+5.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
64.9% (265)
58.3% (408)
Away
50.5% (325)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
58.5%
57.7%
P2
55.6%
54.8%
P3
56.8%
55.2%
Final 5 min
62.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%