Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.9%). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+0.5%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 64.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
55.0% (1,084)
-1.6%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
56.8% (303)
+43.2%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
40.3% (149)
+34.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
56.2% (162)
54.8% (759)
Away
52.9% (187)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
58.2%
55.3%
P2
58.8%
51.9%
P3
45.4%
54.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%