Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Last 8: Kastelic 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Kastelic
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
55.4% (826)
+5.8%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.9% (221)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
50.4% (129)
+5.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
60.9% (233)
55.8% (579)
Away
59.1% (254)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
58.6%
57.7%
P2
58.7%
54.8%
P3
63.1%
54.3%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
67.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |