Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 81.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 52.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
56.2% (983)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
55.5% (254)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
52.0% (102)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
50.6% (162)
56.2% (697)
Away
57.4% (204)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
61.5%
54.5%
P2
52.8%
55.5%
P3
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
46.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |