Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 71.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.0% vs Carrick 53.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 61.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 76.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 63.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (281)
54.3% (346)
+6.6%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
66.7% (3)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (115)
48.4% (31)
+8.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 71.2% vs right-shot opponents (73).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
61.5% (208)
59.0% (161)
Away
58.2% (194)
50.2% (219)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
59.5%
55.5%
P2
59.7%
51.2%
P3
61.2%
55.0%
Final 5 min
66.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
62.0%▬
62.0%
60.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |