Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 68.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Carrick 53.8% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 53.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 65.4%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 61.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
55.1% (439)
+6.1%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
66.7% (3)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
49.1% (53)
+6.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 68.3% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
60.9% (233)
58.2% (225)
Away
59.1% (254)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
58.6%
56.7%
P2
58.7%
52.8%
P3
63.1%
54.4%
Final 5 min
67.5%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |