Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Carrick 52.1% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 50.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 59.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 51.8%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Kastelic
Carrick
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Kastelic
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
2
Kastelic
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
52.1% (2,513)
+4.9%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
61.3% (75)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
50.7% (430)
+2.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
58.9% (895)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
58.5%
51.8%
P2
56.9%
52.2%
P3
55.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
59.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |