Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.5%). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Couturier 53.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 55.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 64.6%
Neutral zone
Couturier 55.7%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Kastelic
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Kastelic
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
2
Kastelic
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
53.8% (1,003)
-0.4%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
56.4% (202)
+43.6%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
42.7% (89)
+32.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Couturier is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Couturier
Home
56.2% (162)
54.4% (680)
Away
52.9% (187)
52.4% (614)
By Period
Kastelic
Couturier
P1
58.2%
56.3%
P2
58.8%
51.8%
P3
45.4%
52.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:57 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |