Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Couturier 53.2% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 52.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 82.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Kastelic
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Kastelic
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
53.4% (758)
+7.8%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
62.9% (70)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
50.7% (227)
+5.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Couturier
Home
60.9% (233)
50.7% (517)
Away
59.1% (254)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Kastelic
Couturier
P1
58.6%
55.2%
P2
58.7%
53.0%
P3
63.1%
53.3%
OT
53.8%
42.4%
Final 5 min
67.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |