Mark Scheifele vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Scheifele wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Last 9: Scheifele 6-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
2
Scheifele
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
50.0% (992)
-3.5%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
64.9% (148)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Scheifele shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Home
46.2% (571)
53.3% (591)
Away
47.7% (535)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Scheifele
MacKinnon
P1
51.9%
49.9%
P2
45.6%
53.2%
P3
43.9%
50.8%
OT
27.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |